The Parameter Houlihan: a solution to high-throughput identifiability indeterminacy for brutally ill-posed problems

One way to interject knowledge into clinically impactful forecasting is to use data assimilation, a nonlinear regression that projects data onto a mechanistic physiologic model, instead of a set of functions, such as neural networks. Such regressions have an advantage of being useful with particularly sparse, non-stationary clinical data. However, physiological models are often nonlinear and can have many parameters, leading to potential problems with parameter identifiability, or the ability to find a unique set of parameters that minimize forecasting error. The identifiability problems can be minimized or eliminated by reducing the number of parameters estimated, but reducing the number of estimated parameters also reduces the flexibility of the model and hence increases forecasting error. We propose a method, the parameter Houlihan, that combines traditional machine learning techniques with data assimilation, to select the right set of model parameters to minimize forecasting error while reducing identifiability problems. The method worked well: the data assimilation-based glucose forecasts and estimates for our cohort using the Houlihan-selected parameter sets generally also minimize forecasting errors compared to other parameter selection methods such as by-hand parameter selection. Nevertheless, the forecast with the lowest forecast error does not always accurately represent physiology, but further advancements of the algorithm provide a path for improving physiologic fidelity as well. Our hope is that this methodology represents a first step toward combining machine learning with data assimilation and provides a lower-threshold entry point for using data assimilation with clinical data by helping select the right parameters to estimate

Population Physiology: Leveraging Electronic Health Record Data to Understand Human Endocrine Dynamics

Studying physiology and pathophysiology over a broad population for long periods of time is difficult primarily because collecting human physiologic data can be intrusive, dangerous, and expensive. One solution is to use data that have been collected for a different purpose. Electronic health record (EHR) data promise to support the development and testing of mechanistic physiologic models on diverse populations and allow correlation with clinical outcomes, but limitations in the data have thus far thwarted such use. For example, using uncontrolled population-scale EHR data to verify the outcome of time dependent behavior of mechanistic, constructive models can be difficult because: (i) aggregation of the population can obscure or generate a signal, (ii) there is often no control population with a well understood health state, and (iii) diversity in how the population is measured can make the data difficult to fit into conventional analysis techniques. This paper shows that it is possible to use EHR data to test a physiological model for a population and over long time scales. Specifically, a methodology is developed and demonstrated for testing a mechanistic, time-dependent, physiological model of serum glucose dynamics with uncontrolled, population-scale, physiological patient data extracted from an EHR repository. It is shown that there is no observable daily variation the normalized mean glucose for any EHR subpopulations. In contrast, a derived value, daily variation in nonlinear correlation quantified by the time-delayed mutual information (TDMI), did reveal the intuitively expected diurnal variation in glucose levels amongst a random population of humans. Moreover, in a population of continuously (tube) fed patients, there was no observable TDMI-based diurnal signal. These TDMI-based signals, via a glucose insulin model, were then connected with human feeding patterns. In particular, a constructive physiological model was shown to correctly predict the difference between the general uncontrolled population and a subpopulation whose feeding was controlled

Self-assembly of the general membrane-remodeling protein PVAP into sevenfold virus-associated pyramids

This is the final version of the article. Available from National Academy of Sciences via the DOI in this record.Viruses have developed a wide range of strategies to escape from the host cells in which they replicate. For egress some archaeal viruses use a pyramidal structure with sevenfold rotational symmetry. Virus-associated pyramids (VAPs) assemble in the host cell membrane from the virus-encoded protein PVAP and open at the end of the infection cycle. We characterize this unusual supramolecular assembly using a combination of genetic, biochemical, and electron microscopic techniques. By whole-cell electron cryotomography, we monitored morphological changes in virus-infected host cells. Subtomogram averaging reveals the VAP structure. By heterologous expression of PVAP in cells from all three domains of life, we demonstrate that the protein integrates indiscriminately into virtually any biological membrane, where it forms sevenfold pyramids. We identify the protein domains essential for VAP formation in PVAP truncation mutants by their ability to remodel the cell membrane. Self-assembly of PVAP into pyramids requires at least two different, in-plane and out-of-plane, protein interactions. Our findings allow us to propose a model describing how PVAP arranges to form sevenfold pyramids and suggest how this small, robust protein may be used as a general membrane-remodeling system.D.P. and T.E.F.Q. received financial support from L’Agence Nationale de la Recherche. W.K. and B.D. received financial support from the Max Planck Society

Defining the phenotypes of sickle cell disease.

The sickle cell gene is pleiotropic in nature. Although it is a single gene mutation, it has multiple phenotypic expressions that constitute the complications of sickle cell disease. The frequency and severity of these complications vary considerably both latitudinally in patients and longitudinally in the same patient over time. Thus, complications that occur in childhood may disappear, persist or get worse with age. Dactylitis and stroke, for example, occur mostly in childhood, whereas leg ulcers and renal failure typically occur in adults. It is essential that the phenotypic manifestations of sickle cell disease be defined accurately so that communication among providers and researchers facilitates the implementation of appropriate and cost-effective diagnostic and therapeutic modalities. The aim of this review is to define the complications that are specific to sickle cell disease based on available evidence in the literature and the experience of hematologists in this field

U.S. Physicians’ Views on Financing Options to Expand Health Insurance Coverage: A National Survey

Background: Physician opinion can influence the prospects for health care reform, yet there are few recent data on physician views on reform proposals or access to medical care in the United States. Objective: To assess physician views on financing options for expanding health care coverage and on access to health care. Design and Participants: Nationally representative mail survey conducted between March 2007 and October 2007 of U.S. physicians engaged in direct patient care. Measurements: Rated support for reform options including financial incentives to induce individuals to purchase health insurance and single-payer national health insurance; rated views of several dimensions of access to care. Main results: 1,675 of 3,300 physicians responded (50.8%). Only 9% of physicians preferred the current employer-based financing system. Forty-nine percent favored either tax incentives or penalties to encourage the purchase of medical insurance, and 42% preferred a government-run, taxpayer-financed single-payer national health insurance program. The majority of respondents believed that all Americans should receive needed medical care regardless of ability to pay (89%); 33% believed that the uninsured currently have access to needed care. Nearly one fifth of respondents (19.3%) believed that even the insured lack access to needed care. Views about access were independently associated with support for single-payer national health insurance. Conclusions: The vast majority of physicians surveyed supported a change in the health care financing system. While a plurality support the use of financial incentives, a substantial proportion support single payer national health insurance. These findings challenge the perception that fundamental restructuring of the U.S. health care financing system receives little acceptance by physicians

The precision of axon targeting of mouse olfactory sensory neurons requires the BACE1 protease

The β-site amyloid precursor protein cleaving enzyme 1 (BACE1) is necessary to generate the Aβ peptide, which is implicated in Alzheimer's disease pathology. Studies show that the expression of BACE1 and its protease activity are tightly regulated, but the physiological function of BACE1 remains poorly understood. Recently, numerous axon guidance proteins were identified as potential substrates of BACE1. Here, we examined the consequences of loss of BACE1 function in a well-defined in vivo model system of axon guidance, mouse olfactory sensory neurons (OSNs). The BACE1 protein resides predominantly in proximal segment and the termini of OSN axons, and the expression of BACE1 inversely correlates with odor-evoked neural activity. The precision of targeting of OSN axons is disturbed in both BACE1 null and, surprisingly, in BACE1 heterozygous mice. We propose that BACE1 cleavage of axon guidance proteins is essential to maintain the connectivity of OSNs in vivo